1942 - The number of democracies had
reduced to 12.
1962 - The number of democracies had grown to 36.
1975
- More than 30 governments had been installed by military coups.
In political
science, the wave of democracy means the
major surge of democracy which have occurred in history.
Put simply, ‘a wave of democracy is a group of transitions from non-democratic regimes to democratic regimes that occur within a specified period of time and that significantly outnumber transitions in the opposite direction’.
Democratization often advances in clusters or waves. The wave of democracy has been linked to sudden shifts in the distribution of power among the great powers, which creates openings and incentives to introduce sweeping domestic reforms.
Citizens
in one country overthrow a dictatorial regime, influencing or inspiring actors
in other, often neighboring, countries to do the same. The most recent example
of this, was the ill-fated Arab Spring that began in Tunisia in December 2010
and quickly spread to other parts of the Arab world.
Early Democracy
Early democracy was practiced by pre-Islamic Arabs. Sayyids (rulers) generally ruled as first among equals. Consultation and consensus are encouraged by the shura concept of administration in the Koran.
However, the invasion of Iraq and the Sasanian Empire signaled the end of democracy in this region. The Islamic caliphs inherited a well-functioning state that they could manage without assemblies within a short period of time.
The same thing happened to the Mongols, who abandoned their democratic habits after invading the Chinese Empire.
Early modern city-states in Europe and the American colonies practiced some forms of early democracy. The rulers did not have bureaucracies to employ in their exercise of control.
Early democracies typically took place in those tiny settings where the residents had the freedom to leave. There was no bureaucracy to aid in the taxation of production by the ruling class. Therefore, a monarch had to bargain to win the support of the notables.
In other words, democracy emerged during a time of weak government leadership. When a king could readily tax production because agriculture was intensive and easy to monitor because he had a bureaucracy to assist him, early democracies collapsed.
After the collapse of the Western Roman Empire in the fifth century BCE, there was no governmental bureaucracy in Europe. Early democracy persisted at the local level. Kings eventually called for the gathering of central assemblies made up of nobles, clergy, and later, city representatives. They had to rule and collect taxes for the king.
Modern Democracy
Modern democracy was a European invention. It was made up of a new type of assembly whose members were elected through universal suffrage. The members were not bound by mandates or instructions from those they represented. In other words, modern democracy is a representative democracy with more widespread suffrage. It developed quickly in Britain.
The 11th-century Norman conquerors inherited the country’s different kingdoms, which had royal councils and assemblies of local notables.
At the end of the 13th century, the king was able to abolish the mandates in the central assembly, which eliminated much blocking power.
The Tudors, who reigned from 1495 to 1603, even made progress in creating a bureaucracy.
Elsewhere in Europe, absolute monarchs (Louis XIV) were better able to reduce the role of councils and assemblies but still needed them to govern.
Prussia under the Hohenzollerns was an exception. Frederick William of Prussia created a permanent army that allowed him to rule without negotiating with assemblies.
The
Glorious Revolution of 1688 created a limited state in England. The Parliament
became sovereign, and its executive, the Ministry, gained something akin to
autocratic power. The Parliament has "absolute despotic power" and
can "do everything that is not naturally impossible." Royal despotism
had been replaced by parliamentary despotism.
In 1787, the United States established the first fully modern democracy, albeit with slaves and women barred from voting.
France
rapidly followed, with no slavery. The formula then spread over the world,
and the franchise was gradually extended.
Many African countries with a pre-colonial tradition of early democracy have embraced modern democracy.
In 1820s, the first "long" wave of democratization began in the United States, with the extension of suffrage to a large proportion of the male population.
1787 US Assembly – history.comThe 1848 Springtime of the Peoples
In 1848, liberal uprisings spread throughout Europe. The so-called "Springtime of the Peoples" began in France. It featured radical workers, socialists, liberal constitutionalists, reformers, nationalists, and members of the emerging middle class. They overthrew monarchs and princes and rocked thrones in France, Poland, Austria, Romania, the Italian peninsula, and the German kingdoms in a matter of weeks.
The liberal movements ultimately failed due to their lack of coordination and because the autocratic forces brutally suppressed them. The Russian Czar dispatched his forces into Romania and Hungary, and the Prussian army assisted in crushing liberal movements in German territories. In the streets, tens of thousands of protesters were slain.
The sword proved mightier than the pen. Britain and France kept a neutral stance throughout the liberal ferment. They were more interested in keeping the peace between the major nations than helping other liberals.
The
forces of counter-revolution everywhere gained strength to maintain a European
balance among the five great countries, and the Springtime of the Peoples was
put down.
Even in situations where the conditions may be ideal, democratic transitions are not always possible. Economically, socially, and politically, nations may enter a transitional phase where the likelihood of progressing towards democracy either rises or falls. However, the dominant major powers' frequently dictate the course that change takes.
First Reverse Wave (1922-1945)
In 1920, the number of democracies in the world had doubled in
the aftermath of the First World War.
Yet almost immediately, the new democracies in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland began to fall.
Europe’s
democratic great powers, France and Britain, were suffering the effects of the
recent devastating war, while the rich democratic power, the United States, had
retreated to the safety of its distant shores.
Mussolini’s rise to power in Italy in 1922, the crumbling of Germany’s Weimar Republic, and the broader triumph of European fascism marked the beginning of a first "reverse wave" that, by 1942, had reduced the number of democratic states in the world to 12.
In Germany, an anti-democratic movement led by the Nazis under Hitler, with considerable popular backing, came to power and established a fascist dictatorship.
Greek democracy fell in 1936.
Spanish
democracy fell to Franco that same year.
Military
coups overthrow democratic governments in Portugal, Brazil, Uruguay, and
Argentina.
Japan’s
shaky democracy succumbed to military rule and then to a form of fascism.
Across three continents, fragile democracies gave way to authoritarian forces exploiting the vulnerabilities of the democratic system, while other democracies fell prey to the worldwide economic depression. There was a ripple effect, too—the success of fascism in one country strengthened similar movements elsewhere, sometimes directly. The result was that by 1939, the democratic gains of the previous forty years had been wiped out.
Second Democratic Wave - Post World War II
With the victory of the democracies and the discrediting of fascism—chiefly on the battlefield—many other countries followed suit. Greece and Turkey both moved in a democratic direction, as did Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Colombia.
By the time the second wave of democratization reached its zenith in 1962, the number of democracies had grown to 36, and they governed close to 40% of the world’s population.
Second Reverse Wave (1960–1975)
A "second reverse wave" hit in the late 1950s.
Peru, Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Uruguay, Ecuador, South Korea, the Philippines, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey, and Greece all fell back under authoritarian rule.
In Africa, Nigeria was the most prominent of the newly decolonized nations where democracy failed.
By 1975, more than three dozen governments around the world had been installed by military coups.
The
second reverse wave brought the number of democracies back down to 30.
Third Democratic Wave
From the mid-1970s through the early 1990s, the number of democracies in the world rose to an astonishing 120, representing well over half the world’s population.
The world simply became a more welcoming place for democracies and a more difficult place for autocratic governments. The democratic norms were broadly accepted.
Authoritarian regimes had to face strong opposition due to their inability to uphold "performance legitimacy" as a result of economic failure. The tremendous expansion of the world economy during the 1960s enhanced living standards, improved education, and significantly enlarged the size of the urban middle class in many nations.
The
Second Vatican Council's theology on order and revolution sought to undermine
the legitimacy of authoritarian regimes in Catholic nations. The Orthodox
churches have become a strong influence on democracy in south-eastern Europe.
A Third Reverse Wave?
The "worldwide democratic revolution" created an external environment conducive to democratization, but it could not produce the conditions necessary for democratization within a particular country if that country lacked favorable internal conditions.
By 1990, neither the White House, the Kremlin, the European Community, nor the Vatican were in a strong position to promote democracy in places where it did not already exist (primarily in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East).
By 1990, at least two third-wave democracies, Sudan and Nigeria, had reverted to authoritarian rule.
People
in positions of power or those who are close to them have nearly always been
responsible for the shifts from democracy to authoritarianism. With only one or
two probable exceptions, popular votes or popular uprisings have never brought
an end to democratic institutions.
The vast majority of the end of democracy transitions took the form of either military coups that overthrew democratically elected leaders or executive coups where democratically elected leaders effectively ended democracy by consolidating power in their own hands, typically by proclaiming a state of emergency or martial law.
Severe
economic setbacks that aggravated social conflict and political polarization,
often produced by leftist governments. Systematic failures of democratic
regimes to operate effectively and their continued inability to provide
welfare, prosperity, equity, justice, domestic order, or external security may
undermine legitimacy over time. As the memories of authoritarian failures fade,
irritation with democratic failures is likely to increase.
We all must try to build a thriving democracy for the next generation, where-
– elections are free, fair, and trusted,
- checks and balances prevent the government from tyrannical overreach, and - facts and honest disagreement, not disinformation, shape public opinion.
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